First Things First. This isn’t a debate over climate change, climate warming, a climate whining, climate warning, or climate anything else. It is simply a modeling, by NOAA, showing IF sea level were to rise by five feet, how that would look at a few San Diego area beaches. You can look at the maps and draw conclusions if you choose, or not… up to you. Included are reports from NPR, Fox, and the San Diego Union-Tribune – choose your favorite news source.
A National Climate Assessment Report by The Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) shares their modeling of what changes might look like.
Following maps show how San Diego area beaches would look with a five-foot sea level rise.
Use this legend for the following maps
It’s an unpopular approach for many locals — residents have said that acknowledging that homes and businesses near sea level may have to be systematically moved or destroyed in the future will hurt property values today.
But the California Coastal Commission requires all seaside cities to have a plan for rising sea levels that includes planned retreat as a possibility, according to the San Diego Union-Tribune.
Should the city fail to comply, the Coastal Commission could decline to certify Del Mar’s Coastal Development Plan and take over the authority of approving building permits along Del Mar’s prized oceanfront.”
NPR News: NPR reports the following, “Del Mar is one of the countless coastal communities in California and across the U.S. that is seeing the impacts of climate change and preparing for worse to come. Del Mar has been having that discussion for years. The city is a national leader in that regard. But it also provides a good example of just how difficult and precarious even planning for sea level rise can be.
‘When the sea walls go, we go’
In 2015, Del Mar created a committee, consisting primarily of residents, to help identify the city’s biggest vulnerabilities to increased flooding and to come up with a plan on how best to address them.
They got grants from the state’s coastal commission and worked with paid consultants.
The findings were grim.
Del Mar’s walkable beach — a huge draw for the town’s 3 million annual visitors — could disappear by 2050.
Sea levels here are projected to rise 1 to 2 feet by 2050, and as much as 5 1/2 by 2100.”
Del Mar produced a document entitled Planning for Sea-Level Rise in Del Mar – you can review their findings at your leisure.
NPR goes on to report how Del Mar plans to deal with any change in sea level rise, “The first is protection — the creation of sea walls or other armoring to defend coastal developments.
The second is accommodation — modifying buildings or developments to accommodate increased flooding. That includes changing zoning or elevating structures.
The final option is the one nobody wants — an option no one wants, described as “the kiss of death.”
San Diego Union-Tribune: The Union-Tribune writes, “It’s generally considered a last option if that. In October, the city of Del Mar headed in the opposite direction when its City Council rejected the idea of including managed retreat in a document that addresses sea-level rise. Residents there worry that property values in the coastal enclave could drop millions of dollars if the city formally acknowledged some of those areas would have to be abandoned eventually.
City officials and many residents contend seawalls, sand retention and replenishment, and river dredging can help preserve their coastal homes, though that is not a universal view within Del Mar.
The California Coastal Commission is increasing pressure on coastal jurisdictions to include managed retreat as part of the mix for future planning.”
